主題：The Natural Rate of Interest and Structural Change

主講嘉賓：王彬，暨南大學(xué)副教授

時(shí)間：2024年5月29日（周三）10:00-11:30

地點(diǎn)：中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)沙河校區(qū)學(xué)院樓13號(hào)樓301

主持人：段玉婉 教授 國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)與貿(mào)易學(xué)院副院長(zhǎng)

評(píng)論人：劉韜 副教授

主辦：中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)與貿(mào)易學(xué)院、北京高校國(guó)際商務(wù)專(zhuān)業(yè)虛擬教研室

內(nèi)容簡(jiǎn)介：

Last three decades have witnessed two phenominal stylized facts in the developed world: the natural rate of interest is trending down; the economy undergoes structural change from agriculture and manufacture to service. Do these two trends have any theoretical relations? This paper answers this question and finds that the natural rate of interest is declining if the economy undergoes stuctural change, e.g. the change from manufacture to service happening in our world. First, we construct these two stylized facts and explore their correlation. The higher the ratio of serivice to manufacture is, the lower the natural rate of interest is. Second, we construct a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. We find that the change of final goods (consumption) share is a sufficient statistics for the declining natural rate if sectors are compliments and the growth rates of sectoral technologies are different. Once there is structural change in terms of final goods share change, the natural rate goes down. The mechanism behind the model is that the sector with lower growth rate becomes larger (higher service share in reality), and then the TFP goes down which results in the lower equilibrium interest rate.

主講人簡(jiǎn)介：

王彬，暨南大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院副教授，博士畢業(yè)于香港城市大學(xué)，研究方向?yàn)楹暧^(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、國(guó)際金融以及政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)。論文發(fā)表于Macroeconomic Dynamics, Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance等期刊。