講座主題：

企業(yè)進(jìn)入與市場關(guān)聯(lián)性：來自中國出口反傾銷關(guān)稅的證據(jù)

Firm Entry and Market Interdependence: Evidence from anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese exports

主講嘉賓：孫昶，香港大學(xué)經(jīng)管學(xué)院副教授

時間：2025年4月23日（周三）10:00

地點(diǎn)：中央財經(jīng)大學(xué)沙河校區(qū)學(xué)院樓13號樓305

主持人：張曉濤，教授，國際經(jīng)濟(jì)與貿(mào)易學(xué)院院長

主辦：中央財經(jīng)大學(xué)國際經(jīng)濟(jì)與貿(mào)易學(xué)院、北京高校國際商務(wù)專業(yè)虛擬教研室、北京高校黨建工作樣板支部國際商務(wù)系教工黨支部

講座內(nèi)容：

研究針對中國產(chǎn)品的單邊反傾銷關(guān)稅如何影響其向不同目的國的出口。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，被調(diào)查產(chǎn)品在征收關(guān)稅的國家（目標(biāo)國）和未征收關(guān)稅的國家（第三國）的總銷售額均出現(xiàn)下降。進(jìn)一步通過分解分析表明，各國出口的同步下降主要由新進(jìn)入企業(yè)數(shù)量減少驅(qū)動。相比之下，個體出口商的銷售額在目標(biāo)國減少，但在第三國增加。為解釋這些現(xiàn)象，論文構(gòu)建了一個基于企業(yè)對多市場進(jìn)入決策相互依賴性的行業(yè)均衡框架。研究表明，僅通過進(jìn)入邊際（entry margin）即可產(chǎn)生跨市場的政策溢出效應(yīng)，且關(guān)稅反應(yīng)的異質(zhì)性與數(shù)據(jù)一致。最后，論文校準(zhǔn)模型并量化了單邊關(guān)稅對全球貿(mào)易和福利的影響。

Using Chinese Customs data, we study how unilateral anti-dumping (AD) tariffs on Chinese products affect their exports to different destination countries. We first document that investigated products experience a decline in their total sales in both the countries that impose tariffs (focal countries) and those that do not (third countries). A decomposition exercise further suggests that the simultaneous declines in exports across countries are primarily driven by a reduction in the number of entrants. In contrast, individual exporters' sales decrease in the focal countries but increase in the third countries. To rationalize these facts,we develop an industry equilibrium framework based on firms' interdependent entry decisions to multiple markets. We show that the entry margin alone can generate cross-market policy spillovers and heterogeneous tariff responses consistent with the data. Finally, we calibrate our model and quantify the global impact of a unilateral tariff on trade and welfare.

嘉賓簡介：

孫昶，香港大學(xué)經(jīng)管學(xué)院副教授。普林斯頓大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士，清華大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)士。研究領(lǐng)域為國際貿(mào)易、跨國投資及其經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)。在Journal of International Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, European Economic Review等國際頂級學(xué)術(shù)期刊發(fā)表論文多篇。