講座主題：Tariff Uncertainty and Trade Dynamics: Evidence from the US-China Trade War

主講嘉賓：李樂融，對外經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學(xué)國際經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易學(xué)院助理教授

時 間：2025年5月26日（周一）14:00-15:30

地 點：中央財經(jīng)大學(xué)沙河校區(qū)二教103

主持人：鐘騰龍副教授、國際貿(mào)易系主任

點評人：劉亞琳副教授；蔣海威副教授

主 辦：中央財經(jīng)大學(xué)國際經(jīng)濟與貿(mào)易學(xué)院

致 謝：本講座獲得2025年中央財經(jīng)大學(xué)專題學(xué)術(shù)講座資助計劃支持

講座內(nèi)容：

We evaluate the impact of tariff uncertainty on Chinese exports to the US during the 18-19 US-China trade war episode. Exploiting variations in tariff risk after tariff announcements across different products, we find that tariff uncertainty significantly reduces Chinese exports to the US: products with increases in tariff risk have on average 6 log points lower exports after the announcement. We also find significant stockpiling effect during the announcement period. Finally, we show that uncertainty not only discourages exports of targeted products, but also spills over to related products that are not directly targeted.

嘉賓簡介：

對外經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學(xué)國際經(jīng)濟與貿(mào)易學(xué)院助理教授，碩士生生導(dǎo)師。2020年獲馬里蘭大學(xué)經(jīng)濟學(xué)博士學(xué)位。2014年獲北京大學(xué)國家發(fā)展研究院經(jīng)濟學(xué)碩士學(xué)位。論文發(fā)表在《經(jīng)濟學(xué)（季刊）》等。