講座主題：Moving Online under De Minimis? Import Tariffs and International Retail E-Commerce

主講嘉賓：俞志宏，英國諾丁漢大學經濟學院副教授

時 間：2025年7月10日（周四）10:30-11:30

地 點：中央財經大學沙河校區(qū)學院樓13號樓321

主持人：張曉濤教授，國際經濟與貿易學院院長

點評人：張艷教授

主 辦：中央財經大學國際經濟與貿易學院

致 謝：本講座獲得2025年中央財經大學專題學術講座資助計劃支持

講座內容：

The rapid growth of international retail e-commerce has drawn scrutiny to the US de minimis rule, which exempts low-value imports from tariffs. This paper analyzes how the rule shapes the e-commerce trade using product-level tariff changes from the2018–2019 US–China trade war. We examine whether tariff increases on traditional imports led consumers to substitute toward tariff-exempt e-commerce imports from China. Using proprietary parcel-level data from a major logistics firm, we find that a one-percentage-point increase in tariffs raised monthly parcel volume by 0.283% in panel regressions, and by 0.719% in long-difference specifications. These effects imply a 4.0%–10.1% increase in e-commerce imports—substantial, yet modest compared to the 152% overall growth from 2017 to 2019. The response is stronger in densely populated ZIP Codes but does not vary by income or race. Our findings show that tariff avoidance under the de minimis rule contributed only modestly to e-commerce growth, but other forces, such as improved platform marketing, played a larger role.

嘉賓簡介：

俞志宏，英國諾丁漢大學經濟學博士、經濟學院副教授、The World Economy副主編。主要研究領域為國際貿易與投資以及中國經濟，他近期的研究工作聚焦于從實證和理論角度探討企業(yè)如何適應全球化，成果發(fā)表于Review of Economics and Statistics，Journal of Internatioanal Economics，European Economic Review，Economic Theory等經濟學頂級期刊，并擔任Quarterly Journal of Economics等期刊匿名審稿人。