講座題目：The multilateral nature of bilateral trade in the age of global value chains

主講人：祝坤福（對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)全球價(jià)值鏈研究院）

講座時(shí)間：2018年5月23日（周三）中午12: 30－13：45

講座地點(diǎn)：中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)院南路校區(qū)主教702

摘要： The gross trade accounting method proposed by Koopman, Wang and Wei (2014) and Wang, Wei and Zhu (2013) that breaks up gross exports into various value-added components by source and additional double counted terms. In this paper, we apply the gross trade accounting method to analyze third countries’ effect in bilateral trade. We decompose gross bilateral trade flows into different value-added and double counted components among 62 trade nations in 34 sectors from 1995 to 2014 on OECD-ICIO database, which taking processing trade into account, and discuss their relationship with GDP statistics. We not only reveal the misleading nature of bilateral balance of trade computed from gross trade statistics but also the sources of such a statistical illusion. This implies that net bilateral imports no longer be a uniform measure for import penetration as the time when final good trade dominate, since its value-added structure can vary significantly across country/sector and bilateral routes in the age of global value chains. It also implies that any bilateral trade policy change will have a third country effect that policy maker cannot overlook.

主講人簡(jiǎn)介：祝坤福，對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)全球價(jià)值鏈研究院副研究員。博士畢業(yè)于中國(guó)科學(xué)院數(shù)學(xué)與系統(tǒng)科學(xué)研究院。主要研究?jī)?nèi)容為投入產(chǎn)出技術(shù)、全球價(jià)值鏈、貿(mào)易與能源環(huán)境分析。研究成果發(fā)表于《Journalof Comparative Economics》、《Energy Economics》、《Economic Systems Research》、《China Economic Review》、《中國(guó)社會(huì)科學(xué)》、《經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》等國(guó)內(nèi)外領(lǐng)先期刊發(fā)表論文30余篇，主持完成國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目多項(xiàng)；研究成果榮獲第十三屆“孫冶方經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué)獎(jiǎng)”，第二屆“張培剛發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究?jī)?yōu)秀成果獎(jiǎng)” 和第十九屆“安子介國(guó)際貿(mào)易獎(jiǎng)”（論文一等獎(jiǎng)）。

本講座獲得中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)專題學(xué)術(shù)講座項(xiàng)目資助。