講座題目：Stronger Protest or Bigger Bluffing? Quantifying the Impacts of Sino-Japanese Diplomatic Tensions on Trade

主 講 人：崔靜波（武漢大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理學(xué)院副教授）

講座時間：2018年9月26日（周三）中午12: 30－13：45

講座地點：中央財經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)院南路校區(qū)主教702會議室

主講人簡介：數(shù)理經(jīng)濟(jì)與數(shù)理金融系副主任，湖北省楚天學(xué)者人才計劃。2012年6月畢業(yè)于美國愛荷華州立大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)系，獲經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士學(xué)位。曾擔(dān)任愛荷華州立大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)系博士后、訪問助理教授。研究方向：環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、創(chuàng)新、國際貿(mào)易。研究成果已發(fā)表在AEA Papers and Proceedings,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,Energy Economics,Journal of International Trade and Economic Development等。主持國家自然科學(xué)基金青年項目和應(yīng)急項目（子課題負(fù)責(zé)人）。擔(dān)任環(huán)境經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)國際頂級學(xué)術(shù)期刊JEEM, JAERE以及國內(nèi)權(quán)威學(xué)術(shù)期刊《中國工業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)》、《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)（季刊）》等匿名審稿人。

摘要： This paper studies the impacts of the Sino-Japanese political tensions on bilateral trade. Using a detailed dataset on daily political events between China and Japan from 1995 to 2012, we examine whether stronger diplomatic expressions triggered by non-military tensions are associated with larger loss in trade. First we construct a diplomatic tension index incorporating the heterogeneity of language responses and event types, and then we run a gravity model of China with its trade partners to test the effect of tensions. The empirical results first show that in the period with tense Sino- Japanese frictions, total exports to Japan experience a significant reduction, whereas the political effects on total imports to China are less pronounced. We also disentangle the short-run and long-run impacts of political interactions on trade, which reveals that better diplomatic relation does mean higher trade in the long-run. In addition, we check separately the impacts of weak and strong responses, and find that strong responses are significantly more destructive than weak responses in terms of Chinese imports. Last but not the least, several industries are identified as most fragile to tensions between China and Japan. Our work sheds light on the influence of diplomatic frictions on interstate trade in a relatively peaceful international environment.

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