地點(diǎn)：中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)沙河校區(qū)主教102M

時(shí)間: 2018年10月20日

上午8:30-9:45

張軼凡(香港中文大學(xué))

講座題目：Moving“Umbrella”: Bureaucratic Transfers, Collusion, and Rent-seeking in China

摘要：The collusion between firms and government o?cials is ubiquitous but hard to empirically assess. This paper studies collusion by tracing the pattern of intercity investments after political turnovers. Exploring the feature of bureaucratic transfers in China and using a unique firm registry data, this paper documents a significant increase of new investments with a close tie to the moving leaders’ previous jurisdiction. Further empirical investigations find evidence consistent with collusion between leaders and firms: First, new registrations tying to moving leaders concentrate in high-renting sectors. Second, the firms tying to moving leaders have a higher survival rate provided that their patrons stayed in the same jurisdictions, but those firms are more likely to exit local markets once the patrons left. Thirdly, the connected firms tend to crowd out new entries and dampen innovation. And lastly, career-concerned motives seem to mitigate collusion.

主講人簡(jiǎn)介： 張軼凡，香港中文大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)系副教授。中國(guó)人民大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)士、碩士，美國(guó)匹茲堡大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士，并在美國(guó)耶魯大學(xué)從事博士后研究。兼任世界銀行、亞洲開(kāi)發(fā)銀行咨詢顧問(wèn)和美國(guó)康奈爾大學(xué)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心研究員。研究興趣包括國(guó)際貿(mào)易、產(chǎn)業(yè)組織和發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)等。研究成果發(fā)表于American Economic Review, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of International Economics等國(guó)際知名期刊。

上午9:45-11:00

劉沖(北京大學(xué))

講座題目： The Impacts of the Three Gorges Dam on Climate Change and Agricultural Production: Are there Long-run Adaptations?

摘要:Can man-made megaprojects, such as hydroelectric dams, cause permanent climate change by dramatically altering natural landscapes? Using a difference-in-differences empirical design,we confirm that the Three Gorges Dam, the largest hydroelectric dam in the world, has increased the air temperature in the reservoir region and caused an unexpected decrease in precipitation in the vast downstream region along the Yangtze River. This decline in precipitation has negatively affected the crop yields of rice in the downstream region, which is the main grain grown in this area. However, farmers’ adaptation to this long-run climate shock has been limited and slow. Instead of enhancing economic efficiency by switching to drought-resistant crops, engaging in non-farm employment or mechanizing production, they have chosen to significantly increase short-run factor inputs, such as land, labor and irrigation expenditures, in order to maintain their output of rice. As a result, the decrease in rice yields persists and has not recovered 10 years after the dam’s construction.

主講人簡(jiǎn)介：劉沖, 男，山東人，1984年11月出生，北京大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院助理教授，世界銀行短期顧問(wèn)。北京大學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)與經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)雙學(xué)位（2007）、北京大學(xué)光華管理學(xué)院應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士（2013）、清華經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院博士后（2015）。研究領(lǐng)域?yàn)楣步?jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)。研究興趣包括公共經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，政治經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，應(yīng)用微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)等,近年來(lái)在Economic Journal、International Journal of Industrial Organization、《經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》、《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)（季刊）》、《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)》、《金融研究》等國(guó)內(nèi)外著名期刊發(fā)表論文20多篇。先后主持國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金、農(nóng)業(yè)部農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心研究基金等多項(xiàng)科研課題。

上午11:00-12:15

戴覓(北京師范大學(xué))

講座題目： 需求與中國(guó)出口企業(yè)動(dòng)態(tài)

摘要：本文采用2000-2011年微觀層面的海關(guān)貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)考察中國(guó)出口企業(yè)在進(jìn)入出口市場(chǎng)后的動(dòng)態(tài)表現(xiàn)，并從需求角度解釋企業(yè)出口的動(dòng)態(tài)調(diào)整。通過(guò)比較同一企業(yè)-產(chǎn)品組合在不同市場(chǎng)的出口表現(xiàn)，本文能夠識(shí)別出需求因素對(duì)于出口動(dòng)態(tài)的影響。結(jié)果顯示，隨著對(duì)某市場(chǎng)出口年齡的增加，企業(yè)出口體現(xiàn)出以下動(dòng)態(tài)特征：（1）退出率逐漸降低（2）出口數(shù)量不斷增加，但增長(zhǎng)率逐漸下降。（3）出口價(jià)格不斷下降。（4）出口數(shù)量和出口價(jià)格變化的波動(dòng)性減小。這些典型事實(shí)與基于需求學(xué)習(xí)解釋企業(yè)出口動(dòng)態(tài)的理論模型一致，而與基于消費(fèi)者積累的理論模型相左。本文研究意味著在出口過(guò)程中對(duì)目的國(guó)市場(chǎng)需求的逐漸學(xué)習(xí)是驅(qū)動(dòng)中國(guó)出口動(dòng)態(tài)調(diào)整的重要因素。

主講人簡(jiǎn)介：北京師范大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)與工商管理學(xué)院副教授。美國(guó)哥倫比亞大學(xué)、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)紐約銀行訪問(wèn)學(xué)者。2013年畢業(yè)于北京大學(xué)國(guó)家發(fā)展研究院，主要研究方向?yàn)閲?guó)際貿(mào)易與發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)。研究成果發(fā)表于Journal of International Economics, Journal of Development Economics, The World Economy 等國(guó)際期刊以及《管理世界》、《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)（季刊）》、《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)》等中文期刊。研究成果獲得18屆“安子介國(guó)際貿(mào)易研究?jī)?yōu)秀論文獎(jiǎng)”。

下午2:00-3:15

紀(jì)珽 (中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué))

講座題目：Quantifying the "Pollution Haven": an Existing Effect but an Unsupported Hypothesis

摘要:We develop a full-_edged general equilibrium trade model with pollution as a by-product of production. We discipline it with standard parameters from established trade and environment literature, which are estimated from real dataper se. Our quantitative evaluation based on the model suggests that provided with an observable existence of thePollution Haven Effect, thePollution Haven Hypothesisis still unsupported because environmental policy stringency, as a determinant of pollution and abatement, is weak relative to other conventional sources of comparative advantages and does not fundamentally determine international division of labor. However, a reduction in trade costs would induce more world overall pollution just as the PHH predicts, but it is not a result of environmental policy stringency but simply because of re-organization of production across borders due to other comparative advantage forces.

主講人簡(jiǎn)介：中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)與貿(mào)易學(xué)院助理教授,清華大學(xué)本科, 加利福尼亞大學(xué)洛杉磯分校(UCLA)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士學(xué)位, 研究成果發(fā)表于Journal of African Economies等國(guó)際期刊, 主持國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金青年項(xiàng)目一項(xiàng)。

下午3:15-4:30

顏色(北京大學(xué))

講座題目：Elite or State: Grain Prices, Social Conflicts and Public Goods Provision in Eighteenth-Century China

摘要: State and community shape a society together. This paper documents and compares the function of the government and local elites in stabilizing fluctuations in grain prices in eighteenth-century China. Narrative evidence suggests that, while the government provided public goods including the ever-normal granary system, the elites also participated in multiple ways, including leading water project constructions, managing private granaries, and providing social relief. However, few studies have quantitatively compared the importance of these two players. We construct a prefecture-level panel data from 1742 to 1795 to examine the effect of the official granary system versus local elites. Preliminary results show that the effects differed across the country. While the government played a dominant role in the North, the elites effectively reduced price fluctuations in the Lower Yangzi.

主講人簡(jiǎn)介：顏色于2008年在加利福尼亞大學(xué)洛杉磯分校(UCLA)獲得經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士學(xué)位，隨后加入了北京大學(xué)光華管理學(xué)院。他目前是應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)系的研究教授。在此之前，他在北京大學(xué)分別獲得國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)士學(xué)位和經(jīng)濟(jì)史碩士學(xué)位。顏色博士的研究專長(zhǎng)在于經(jīng)濟(jì)史、發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題。顏色博士的研究獲得國(guó)內(nèi)外同行的關(guān)注。他的博士論文《Real Wages and Skill Premia in China, 1860 to 1936》獲得第十五屆世界經(jīng)濟(jì)史大會(huì)最佳博士論文獎(jiǎng)，這是中國(guó)學(xué)者首次獲此殊榮。他的論文發(fā)表在國(guó)內(nèi)外著名學(xué)術(shù)期刊如“International Economic Review”、“Explorations in Economic History”、《經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》、《管理世界》、《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)季刊》等。他的研究獲得美國(guó)國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金、中國(guó)國(guó)家社科基金和教育部人文社科基金的資助。他還作為主持人承擔(dān)了國(guó)家重修清史項(xiàng)目《清史?對(duì)外貿(mào)易志》的科研項(xiàng)目。他擔(dān)任SSCI期刊“Australian Economic History Review”的副編審。在光華管理學(xué)院，顏色主要從事本科、MBA的《宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)》、《中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)專題》和博士生的《經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)專題》、《經(jīng)濟(jì)史專題》以及國(guó)際合作部、高層培訓(xùn)項(xiàng)目等課程的教學(xué)工作。他曾經(jīng)獲得北京大學(xué)教學(xué)優(yōu)秀獎(jiǎng)和光華管理學(xué)院教學(xué)一等獎(jiǎng)。

下午4:30-5:45

樊海潮(復(fù)旦大學(xué))

講座題目：FDI to Elude

摘要: How does domestic tax affect firms’ outward FDI (OFDI) decisions?

We address this question via a model in which firms of heterogeneous productivity make a choice between exporting and OFDI. We exploit a policy change in China that unifies corporate income tax rates through raising foreign firms’ but reducing domestic firms’ tax rates. Using a difference-in-differences estimator that compares the OFDI of foreign and domestic firms before and after the tax unification, we find that a higher corporate income tax rate increases the probability of firm OFDI. The facts that few destinations are tax havens and firms reduced domestic investment in China suggest that the OFDI decisions reflect firms’ capital relocation instead of profits shifting overseas.

主講人簡(jiǎn)介：復(fù)旦大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院副教授，香港科技大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士,多篇論文發(fā)表于國(guó)際一流期刊如Review of Economics and Statistics, Economic Journal, Journal of International Economics (同期兩篇), Journal of Development Economics等。

本系列講座獲得2018年中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)專題學(xué)術(shù)講座項(xiàng)目資助。