講座題目： Disguised Carry Trade and the Transmission of Global Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from China's Goods Trade Data

主講人：林曙 教授 （香港中文大學）

講座時間：2019年6月19日（周三）下午3:00-4:30

講座地點：中央財經大學學院南路校區(qū)主教學樓702會議室

主講人簡介：林曙，經濟學博士。現(xiàn)任香港中文大學經濟系副教授。曾任復旦大學經濟學院金融學教授，國際金融系系主任。林曙教授是孫冶方金融創(chuàng)新獎得主，國家自然科學基金優(yōu)秀青年項目獲得者。研究領域包括國際經濟學、貨幣政策、中國經濟和公司金融。研究成果發(fā)表于Review of Financial Studies, Journal of Monetary Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of International Economics, Journal of Development Economics, Review of Economic Dynamics 等眾多國際頂尖期刊。

摘要：Currency carry trade disguised as goods trade can potentially channel external financial shocks to domestic economic environment, despite capital controls. We identify this channel in the context of post-GFC China using variations in product characteristics and a policy shock. We show that trade volumes of cost-efficient products responded significantly more to carry returns. However, such differential responses to carry returns vanished after the government’s clampdown on illicit capital flows. At the aggregate level, we demonstrate further that the surge in disguised carry trades led to a significant expansion of China’s shadow banking credit but not its traditional bank lending credit.

本次講座是中央財經大學“龍馬奮進·校慶70周年學術系列講座”的組成部分，獲得了2019年中央財經大學專題學術講座項目資助。